Palm Coast, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS62 KJAX 250651
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
251 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Today: High pressure ridge axis across the local area will slide
a bit southward, but lingering dry airmass with PWATs only in the
1.00 to 1.25 inch range will still only support a brief
shower/sprinkle (Rainfall chances around 10%) along the East Coast
sea breeze front as it pushes inland, while some slightly deeper
moisture across inland SE GA will still support some isolated late
afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity to the North and West
of Waycross as the East Coast sea breeze reaches these locations
late in the day. Max temps will remain well above normal and at
near record levels with highs in the lower 80s at the Atlantic
beaches, middle 80s along the I-95 corridor, and upper 80s to
lower 90s over inland areas.

Tonight: Other than a few isolated storms possible across inland
SE GA until midnight, fair skies and dry weather are expected
across the rest of the SE GA/NE FL area as high pressure ridge
axis settles further southward across the FL Peninsula. Low temps
will fall into the lower 60s inland and mid/upper 60s along the
Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River Basin. Light south winds will
continue to keep fog chances fairly low, but some patchy fog will
still be possible over inland areas around sunrise Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

High pressure retreats as a cold front gradually shifts southward
across GA on Saturday. Moisture return ahead of the front will be
limited but could be enough to support a couple of showers
developing along the sea breezes as they shift inland late
Saturday afternoon into evening. Higher PWATs (~1.5 in.) build
into the area as the cold front shifts into NE FL on Sunday.
Better moisture and the additional lift with the sea breezes
interacting with the frontal boundary will lead to isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing Sunday afternoon into
evening. Above seasonable temperatures continue this weekend with
highs ranging from the mid 80s along the immediate coast to the
upper 80s/low 90s inland. Overnight lows will generally be in the
60s.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Frontal boundary over NE FL exits the area as high pressure over
the mid-Atlantic region shifts southeastward into the Atlantic
Monday into Tuesday. Lingering moisture and a passing shortwave
aloft will support scattered convection developing along the sea
breezes as they shift inland on Monday. High pressure ridging
dominates for much of next week bringing a return of drier
weather. Easterly flow on Monday and Tuesday will lead to an east-
west temperature gradient with highs ranging from the upper 70s
along the coast to upper 80s further inland. Temperatures return
to above seasonable by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Still expecting mainly VFR conds through the morning hours as
onshore flow brings some SCT025-030 strato-cu clouds onshore into
the coastal TAF sites, while near calm winds will still support
some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ in the 07-11Z time frame. Rainfall
chances still remain too low for any inclusion at the TAF sites
this afternoon as SE winds increase to 8-11 knots this afternoon
with SCT035-040 fair weather Cu clouds continue through the
afternoon hours then fade after sunset this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

High pressure ridge axis across the local waters today will
continue the SE flow at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft, then will
shift just south of the local waters tonight and Saturday with a
more South to Southwest flow at 10-15 knots with seas 2-4 ft,
although it will be weak enough to still allow for an onshore SE
sea breeze at the coast Saturday afternoon. Models are still in
good agreement with back door frontal passage crossing the local
waters from north to south sometime on Sunday with a shift in the
winds back to the Northeast as high pressure builds north of the
waters through Monday. At least a brief period of NE winds close
to 15-20 knots and seas 4-6 ft will be possible Sunday Night into
early Monday with SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) headlines.
This high pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic into the
Carolinas will build south into the local waters on Tuesday and
Wednesday with a return to the standard SE wind flow and seas once
again returning to 2-4 ft.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate Risk of Rip currents at NE FL/SE GA
beaches today and Saturday with surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range
as Southeast sea breeze develops both days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Dry conditions continue today with inland RHs in the 30s. Good
dispersions today in the SE flow. WSW transport winds and mixing
heights increase on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.
This will lead to high dispersions across inland southeast Georgia
on Saturday. Low- level moisture gradually increases helping to
support an isolated shower along the sea breezes as they shift
inland late Saturday afternoon into evening. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage increases Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

DAILY RECORD HIGHS

 FRI 4/25SAT 4/26SUN 4/27

JAX 92 (1958) 92 (2011) 94 (1986)

GNV 93 (1896) 93 (1908) 96 (2011)

AMG91 (1958) 93 (1986) 96 (1986)

CRG91 (2006) 91 (1989) 93 (2011)


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  62  88  64 /  10  20  10  10
SSI  79  67  84  68 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  86  63  90  66 /  10  10  20  10
SGJ  83  64  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  62  90  63 /  10  10  20  10
OCF  92  61  91  63 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$